Paper contribution

Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessment of Rock Slope Stability in Dolomite Quarries in Hungary

Ferenc Ferdinánd Füzesi; Gyula Bögöly

Proceedings
EUROCK 2026
Pages
1009-1015
Submitted
28 January 2026
Accepted
15 June 2026
Published
12 August 2026

Summary

Abstract

Rock slope stability in dolomite quarries is strongly influenced by the variability of discontinuity geometry and shear strength parameters. This study compares deterministic and probabilistic stability assessments of bench-scale quarry walls affected by discontinuity-controlled failures in four Hungarian open-pit dolomite quarries. The dataset comprises five planar-failure and two wedge-failure cases. Deterministic analyses were carried out using RocPlane and SWedge, whereas probabilistic analyses were performed using Latin Hypercube Sampling. The results show that deterministic and probabilistic approaches do not yield directly comparable assessments of bench stability. The same deterministic design criterion (FoS = 1.35) corresponded to markedly different probability-of-failure (PoF) levels depending on failure mode, geometry, and the statistical characteristics of the input parameters. For wedge failures, the corresponding PoF values ranged from 0.30% to 14.0%, whereas for planar failures they ranged from 0% to 12.96%. An extended probabilistic planar-failure analysis was also performed for the Csákvár–3 case by systematically varying slope angle and failure-plane angle. The resulting PoF field showed a strongly non-linear response, confirming that relatively small geometric changes may substantially affect failure probability. Overall, the results indicate that probabilistic analysis provides important complementary information to deterministic design and that FoS-, PoF-, or reliability-based acceptance criteria should be interpreted in a site-specific geological and geometrical context.

Contributors

Authors

  1. Ferenc Ferdinánd Füzesi Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary ORCID 0009-0004-5554-5021
  2. Gyula Bögöly Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary

Index terms

Keywords

Full text

Attachments

Works cited

References

  1. Adams BM (2015) Slope stability acceptance criteria for opencast mine design. 12th Australia-New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics, Wellington, New Zealand
  2. Bárdossy G, Fodor J (2004) Evaluation of uncertainties and risks in geology: New mathematical approaches for their handling. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-662-07138-0
  3. Barton N, Choubey V (1977) The shear strength of rock joints in theory and practice. Rock Mechanics 10: 1–54. DOI: 10.1007/BF01261801
  4. Bedi A (2013) A proposed framework for characterising uncertainty and variability in rock mechanics and rock engineering. Dissertation at Imperial College London
  5. Budai T, Csillag G, Kercsmár Z, Selmeczi I, Sztanó O (2015) Surface geology of Hungary. Explanatory notes to the Geological map of Hungary (1:500 000). Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary, Budapest
  6. Haas J, Budai T (1999) Triassic sequence stratigraphy of the Transdanubian Range (Hungary). GeologicaCarpathica 50(6): 459–475
  7. Haas J, Budai T (2014a) Stratigraphic and facies problems of the Upper Triassic in the Transdanubian Range: Reconsideration of old problems on the basis of new results. FöldtaniKözlöny 144(2): 125–142.
  8. Haas J, Budai T (eds) (2014b) Geology of the pre-Cenozoic basement of Hungary. Explanatory notes for “Pre-Cenozoic geological map of Hungary” (1:500 000). Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary, Budapest
  9. Héja G, Fodor L, Csillag G, Ortner H, Kövér Sz (2022) Complex deformation history of the Keszthely Hills, Transdanubian Range, Hungary. Central European Geology 65(1): 77–110. DOI: 10.1556/24.2022.00114
  10. Kirsten HAD (1983) Significance of the probability of failure in slope engineering. The Civil Engineer in South Africa 25(1): 17–23
  11. Márton E, Haas J, Imre G, Velki M, Fodor L (2025) New Mesozoic APWP for Adria aided by data from the Transdanubian Range Unit – Tectonic interpretation in the Europe–Africa geodynamic system. Gondwana Research 137: 274–298. DOI: 10.1016/j.gr.2024.09.006
  12. Pothitos F, Li T (2007) Slope design criteria for large open pits - Case study. Slope Stability 2007: Proceedings of the 2007 International Symposium on Rock Slope Stability in Open Pit Mining and Civil Engineering, Perth, Australia
  13. Priest SD, Brown ET (1983) Probabilistic stability analysis of variable rock slopes. Transactions of the Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, Section A 92: A1–A12
  14. Schellman M, Sepulveda R, Karzulovic A (2006) Slope design for the east wall of Mantoverde Mine, Chañaral, Chile. International Symposium on Stability of Rock Slopes in Open Pit Mining and Civil Engineering, Cape Town, South Africa, pp 451–470
  15. Sjöberg J (1999) Analysis of large scale rock slopes. Doctoral Thesis. Luleå University of Technology, Luleå, Sweden
  16. Ulusay R (ed) (2015) The ISRM suggested methods for rock characterization, testing and monitoring: 2007–2014. Springer, Cham. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-07713-0
  17. Wesseloo J, Read J (2009) Acceptance criteria. In: Read J, Stacey P (eds) Guidelines for open pit slope design, pp 221–236. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood. DOI: 10.1071/9780643101104.ch09